Where Real Estate Gets Its Dirt

Dracarys

Compass International Holdings Gives a Data Feed of All of its Listings to MRED

“MRED is announcing nationwide expansion of its MLS service, including the Private Listing Network (PLN), to any licensed agent.”

“Compass International Holdings is also committed to subsidizing some of the cost of MRED access to the first 100,000 Compass International Holdings agents to join MRED as full members.”

Holy shit! A regional MLS in Lisle, Illinois just announced it’s going national. And the largest brokerage in the country is picking up the tab.

Let me back up.

A few weeks ago I wrote about Reffkin’s proposal for a brokerage-owned national MLS. At the time, sources told me he’d pitched the idea on stage of Brian Donnellan CEO, of Bright MLS leading the charge. Apparently that didn’t go anywhere. So Robert went shopping and found a willing partner in Rebecca Jensen, who has been running MRED for years and has never been shy about doing things differently.

I once compared Rebecca to Daenerys Targaryen from Game of Thrones on Industry Relations. She’s been building dragons for a decade with the Private Listing Network, quietly, while the rest of the MLS world debated whether private listings should even exist. Now she’s burning the map.

This is MLS consolidation, but not the kind we’ve been tracking. Not two neighboring MLSs merging to save on overhead. This is a single MLS going national overnight, powered by Compass’s inventory and Compass’s checkbook. MRED goes from 250,000 listings annually to… what exactly? Compass alone does over a million transactions a year post-Anywhere. That’s not expansion. That’s a whole new animal.

Now let’s talk about what they’re actually offering. MRED says agents can “manage price history, days on market, and automated valuation models.” That sounds an awful lot like suppressing information that buyers would find useful. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I’m not a fan of less information in real estate. Full stop. But here’s my real question: is MRED still capturing actual DOM and price changes on the backend, just not displaying them publicly? Because if the data exists internally but gets hidden from consumers, that’s one conversation. If it’s not being tracked at all, that’s a much scarier one. And will other MRED brokers like their MLS getting so cozy with Compass?

Then there’s this line: “MRED also commits to protect and safeguard agents who participate in its PLN from being banned or penalized by third party portals and IDX feed recipients.”

Bold. Really bold. But how? Zillow has already shown it will punish listings that get marketed outside their ecosystem before hitting the MLS. What exactly is MRED going to do when Zillow bans a Compass agent’s listings? Send a strongly worded letter? File a lawsuit? Kick them out of the MLS? I’d genuinely love to know, because that promise is either the most important sentence in this press release or the emptiest.

Look, I see what’s happening here. Reffkin has been playing chess all year. The Redfin syndication deal. The war on Clear Cooperation. The national MLS pitch. And now he’s found an MLS CEO willing to go full Dracarys with him. Rebecca gets to go from running a midwestern MLS to running a national platform. Robert gets an MLS partner who won’t fine his agents for pocket listings and will actually fight the portals on his behalf. It’s a hell of a deal for both of them.

Whether it’s a good deal for everyone else… that’s the part I’m still working out.

Giant Steps offers free “Pre-marketing Listing Toolkit”

We Built a Pre-Market Listings Toolkit for MLS Leaders. Here’s Why — and It’s Yours.

“If you’ve been following the real estate industry over the past year, you know the conversation around private listings and pre-marketing has moved fast. Zillow Preview, the Compass-Redfin partnership, eXp’s deals with Homes.com and Realtor.com — it feels like the landscape shifts every few weeks. And if you’re an MLS executive or board member trying to brief your leadership team on what’s happening, keeping materials current is its own full-time job.

We know because we’ve been living it.

At Giant Steps, we work with MLS organizations and proptech companies navigating exactly this kind of complexity. Over the past several months, we’ve been fielding the same questions from clients and colleagues: What’s the difference between a pocket listing and a private listing? How does Zillow Preview actually work? What does this mean for my MLS?

So we decided to build a set of materials that any MLS organization can use to get their board and leadership up to speed — quickly, clearly, and without spin…


Head over to the Giant Steps Advisors blog to download the PDFs

Zillow Has Receipts

Zillow economist calls out Redfin for ‘mischaracterizing’ research

Zillow Chief Economist Mischa Fisher wrote that the analysis is modeled around assumptions, not hard data: “The estimate works roughly like this: take a share of sellers assumed to be uncertain about pricing, multiply by an assumed share who would benefit from early feedback, then apply an assumed relationship between listing confidence and eventual inventory. Stack those fractions, add a ‘multiplier’ for sell-then-buy chains, and you get 6-12%.”

So let me get the timeline straight. In February, Compass signs a three-year deal with Redfin to syndicate its Coming Soon and Private Exclusive listings. Two weeks later (two weeks?) Redfin publishes a study claiming pre-marketing could boost inventory by 6-12%. And some of the data Redfin cited to support this claim? Pulled from Zillow’s own surveys… which Zillow says Redfin “mischaracterized.”

I don’t think Fisher is wrong. The methodology is basically: assume a bunch of things, multiply the assumptions together, tack on a 1.6x multiplier for sell-then-buy chains, and Boom! You get a headline that just happens to validate the business deal your parent company signed last month.

Look, I get it. Every company funds research that makes their strategy look smart. That’s not new. But most companies have the good sense not to borrow their competitor’s homework and then get the answers wrong.

Redfin’s response? “We appreciate the engagement with our research and welcome discussion about the model and its parameters.” Which is corporate speak for “we’re not changing anything, but thanks for reading.”

This whole pre-marketing war has been fascinating (and frustrating) to watch. You’ve got Compass trying to build a parallel listing universe, Redfin handing them a storefront, Rocket greasing the mortgage side, and now they’re publishing research to justify the whole thing while Zillow’s economist is out here doing peer review on LinkedIn! Meanwhile the MLSs are watching their relevance get chipped away one “Coming Soon” at a time.

Fisher also pointed out what should be obvious: pre-marketing creates “information asymmetry” — meaning the buyers who aren’t plugged into Compass’s network don’t get to see these listings. That’s not boosting inventory. That’s just moving it behind a velvet rope, but also what I would expect the incumbent to say.

But who can tell?

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